Golden Age

[McGizmo]

Hi guys,

When I was studying economics last century, in one class we delved into Pareto and various ways and means of quantifying and qualifying economies and standards of living. There was a notion of a golden age that might be some where in future time that could be reached by concerted efforts of those living and producing and consuming leading up to that time. There was a notion of an optimal population size which would best exploit and tap available resources as well as optimal economies of scale to be targeted. Technologies in development would also be factored in. As I recall there was a notion of planning and behaving accordingly so that this optimal or golden age might be reached in the future.

It was easy to see and fathom that in some cases in the present and some time to come into the future that people would need to conserve and save so that this golden age might ultimately be reached. That is to say sacrifices to be made today so that tomorrow might be better.

Such altruism may make sense for a species but unless this golden age could be reached in an individual's life time, what would the incentive be for them? Would it be for the government to to take the future potential in mind and initiate programs and adjust their behavior with a target of a golden age? If people or government wish to achieve an optimal economy or society knowing it will be enjoyed by their children or even children's children there are different priorities and consumption behaviors resulting than those of "living for the day".

At the very other end of the spectrum, it was discussed how an individual with no care or concern for the future could optimize their living experience by seeking to establish the greatest possible level of debt and maintaining that level until they die. With either no children to be concerned about or simply disregard for their lot in life, it is clear that dying not only penniless but deep in debt could maximize the consumption and experiences of the individual.

It seems to me that during my life time, societies, individuals and governments have probably moved from targeting future golden opportunities to shorter term maximums with debt pushed out towards the future as opposed to a greater and more prosperous future. Now it seems that the future debt may be beyond our ability and even the planet's ability, to cover or handle.

I find it difficult these days to imagine mankind seeking a future Golden Age. We may have already seen it. Perhaps it is just the cynic in me but it seems that our target for the future now may be more in terms of simple survival; forget about optimal quality of living.

Realistically, I think the goal should be sustainability for present as well as future generations and in tweaking the finer points and efficiencies, each generation can enjoy some added prosperity and appreciation for what they have achieved.

Does mankind give a damn about its future and if yes, what will we do to insure there will be one? Is there a challenge here that we need to take on?

[Darell]

Well written, and filled with great questions, Don. A great counter-point to the curent "plastic bag" thread that still has me shaking my head.

[josey]

Can we not work toward a golden age without sacrificing ourselves?

We have an implied debt to the people who came before us and an implied obligation to those who will follow us. As long as we are true to our fellow people, past and future, we can move forward, taking our fair share as we go.

Personally, I think when power and wealth are concentrated, we're much worse off than when power and wealth are fairly and relatively evenly distributed. Look at Mexico. No one can say that the Mexican people are not hard working and creative. But they suffer from a society that does not fairly distribute wealth and power; so Mexico suffers.

[jtr1962]

Yeah, I've always wondered why it's an either/or proposition myself. Fact is a lot of aspects of sustainable living are more interesting and more fun than the status quo. I'd much rather ride a bike or a train than a car. Generating your own power with solar panels sounds like fun (no system yet but I'm looking into it). An EV sounds like a blast over a fossil fuel car. Growing your own food is a nice project, and it frees you from the price swings at the supermarket. Besides that, many things which are green also save you a ton of money (rechargeable batteries for one). It's just that to most people the idea of doing anything different is automatically "a sacrifice" because maybe they'll burn a few brain cells learning about it. But once they start, they'll see it's no sacrifice at all. The hard part is getting them over that hurdle.

[Darell]

Originally Posted by jtr1962

Fact is a lot of aspects of sustainable living are more interesting and more fun

And more enjoyable and more fulfilling, etc... than the status quo.

Great post. I agree!

I'd rather grow and eat my own food. I'd rather ride my bike than ride a motorcycle. I'd rather paddly my kayak than zip around in my speed boat. I absolutely prefer to drive my electric car than to drive any gas car.

And I KNOW that I'm not missing out on life's wonderful joys of excess... because I've already been there and done that. This is better in all ways. At least for me! If this is the dark side of environmentalism, then we're in great shape.

If I had to guess, I'd say that the last 100 years would likely go down in history as "the golden age." At least the Golden Age of excess. I doubt that we'll see another time of such "windfall" energy as we experienced in the past 100 years.

[josey]

Originally Posted by Darell

I doubt that we'll see another time of such "windfall" energy as we experienced in the past 100 years.

I would have bet $100 that you'd never say such a thing.

We are bathed in energy of all forms. Exxon just committed $600 million to make ethanol from algae. A community in Denmark decided to get serious about alternative energy and is now choking on an excess of the stuff.

And technology is so unbelieveably powerful today. Look at the new iPhone. Ten years ago, the iPhone was impossible technology about 100 times over.

In many ways, we are on the cusp of a golden age. Our problems are political and environmental. They have nothing to do with technology or energy.

[Darell]

Originally Posted by josey

I would have bet $100 that you'd never say such a thing.

Excellent. I hate to be predictable all the time.

Our problems are political and environmental. They have nothing to do with technology or energy.

To a great extent, I agree. My comment about "windfall" energy was meant to convey that the energy was just there for the picking. It was literally bubbling out of the ground! We didn't need much in the way of fancy technology, and the hurdles of politics were nowhere to be seen. The energy was almost free, and there was nothing special needed to collect it. Collecting our energy in the future will not be so simple even if the source could still be considered "windfall."

[josey]

Originally Posted by Darell

... My comment about "windfall" energy was meant to convey that the energy was just there for the picking. It was literally bubbling out of the ground! We didn't need much in the way of fancy technology, and the hurdles of politics were nowhere to be seen. The energy was almost free, and there was nothing special needed to collect it. Collecting our energy in the future will not be so simple even if the source could still be considered "windfall."

Aaarrrg. I'd have bet $200 you'd never post such a thing.

Sunlight is there for the picking. What's a solar panel? A couple slabs of melted sand. Or it can be a window. Back in 1980, the local courthouse here in Toolyville was built with the south face covered with solar hot-water panels that heat water and the building. They cost $100,000. They save the county $35,000 a year. Locals here who say they are financially conservative hate those panels. Huh?

Don's roof is powering half his neighborhood. It's easier to ship in coal and oil to Hawaii?

The wind is virtually free. Tides are virtually free. Geothermal is virtually free. Waves are virtually free. And the technology to capture that energy is mostly pretty simple. We've just never developed those energy sources because THE RICHEST MOST POWERFUL CORPORATIONS IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND flexed their political muscle and took us in another, probably disastrous direction.

Back to the re-education camp for you, Darell.

[Darell]

I'm starting to get the idea that instead of posting, I'd do better making bets.

I'm Republican
I think single-occupant SUVs make the ultimate commute vehicle
bicycles are for little girls
I water the landscaping 7x per week and keep adding lush, green lawn
I shop at Wal*Mart exclusively
Agribusiness beef is my most common meal
I drive my car to the end of the driveway to pick up my mail
I keep my thermostat at 65 in the summer, 85 in the winter

I figure that's good for about $1500. You can make the check out to Darell, the EVnut.

[jtr1962]

You forgot to mention that your family of three lives in a 5000 square foot McMansion sitting on 6 acres of cleared forest. And you heat it in the winter with copious amounts of firewood.

[McGizmo]

I have always thought of petroleum and energy as the food for industry. As Josey has pointed out, we have ample energy or "food" available to keep our industries well fed and producing; whether we are presently tapping these sources or not.

However in terms of a notion of golden age, I mean a golden age for man and not his machines. For man to benefit from his machines they need the resources to produce viable and desirable goods for man. Those resources of "input" are not necessarily abundant like the energy needed to process them.

Now change requires energy and I think we need to identify good change and embrace it and in line with Josey's reasoning, I think it is wonderful that we likely have the technology and energy needed to bring about this change. We may well be golden in ability and the potential to alter our course and seek a better and healthier world for us and life in general (of which we are way more dependent than many are willing to credit).

But where energy is the food for industry and machine, man needs a different and more literal food to survive and enjoy good health. To a greater extent than ever before, man relies on industry and technology to produce and provide this real food. Our collective farm and ranch now spans the globe and although we may have the cultivators and harvesters needed to work and process the crops and livestocks, it seems they are simply not sustainable in their present mix and composition and level of demand for them. Demand is greater than supply. With supply at max, demand is not met and this certainly doesn't point to any potential Golden Age that I can imagine. It really seems that mankind has to take a hard look at going on a diet!! We need to reduce our demand individually and we need to reduce the growth in number of new mouths that will demand to be fed.

[josey]

Originally Posted by McGizmo

However in terms of a notion of golden age, I mean a golden age for man and not his machines. For man to benefit from his machines they need the resources to produce viable and desirable goods for man. Those resources of "input" are not necessarily abundant like the energy needed to process them.

Yes, I like that. But look at us, able to communicate and share knowledge and humor and advice with each other, even though we are widely dispersed around the globe. And it isn't taking much energy. I'd guess that most of the energy in this thread comes from solar.

The question is what do we need. We don't need Coke or chips or white bread or polyester slacks or McMansions or McNuggets. We need nutritious food, comfortable shelter, tools, clean air and water, medical care, education, companionship, transportation, communication, spiritual enrichment. Most of those things are pretty cheap, given our technology.

But we waste most of our time and resources on stuff we don't need or that hurts us. Hate radio makes us worse off. PBS makes us better. But we have powerful interests pushing us to buy and dedicate our time to things that make them rich and us poor. I stood behind a woman at Costco and her cart was stacked with a mound of junk. The lady in front of her was returning a box of organic bran flakes because she didn't like the taste. Those were sick, hurting women who had resources aplenty.

I don't think the golden age is elusive for lack of resources, but for lack of wisdom.